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Evidence Base
Literature and evidence base
All of the verified academic findings the CEGAI framework draws on are listed below. Every finding is published with the full citation of the study it belongs to and, where possible, a DOI number.
The findings on this page belong to third-party academic literature; they are not Çeliron's own work. Every finding is published together with its source.
Source Selection
What is included in this list, and what is not?
Every finding on this page was admitted to the list only after three separate checks: that the source genuinely exists, that the figure belongs to that source, and that the source actually says what is claimed.
No finding enters this list if its source cannot be verified, if its figure does not match the source, or if it attributes academic weight to a study that is not peer-reviewed.
The presence of a finding here does not make it Çeliron's own result. Each finding is valid within the scope and limits of the study it comes from.
Verified Magnitudes
Magnitudes of impact in the literature
The magnitudes below are measured in different units and cannot be compared directly with one another. They are therefore presented in separate unit groups.
Multiplier (×)
per unit of investment
- Gripen — social return≥ 2.6×
- Fraunhofer — turnover multiplier13.18×
- ATI — economy-wide output£14 / £1
The Fraunhofer figure is a TURNOVER multiplier, not a rate of return.
Percentage effect (%)
change in the relevant indicator
- Fraunhofer centre → regional patents≥ 13%
- SENAI → contribution to Brazil's GDP~0.66%
- Public R&D +10% → private R&D5–6%
- Return to public R&D capital (nondefense)140–210%
Probability and rate (%)
calculated probability
- HL-LHC — probability of positive NPV94%
- Yozma — fund exit rate56%
Full source citations are given in the card list below.
Cases
Verified studies
- B1Defence
The Gripen programme and defence R&D spillovers
A comprehensive analysis of Sweden's JAS 39 Gripen programme found that the programme investment produced a social return of at least 2.6 times its value.
CaveatThis value is presented as a LOWER BOUND, not a point estimate.
Eliasson, G. (2010). Advanced Public Procurement as Industrial Policy: The Aircraft Industry as a Technical University. Springer, Economics of Science, Technology and Innovation, vol. 34. ISBN 9781441958488. Additional source: Eliasson, G. (2017), "Visible Costs and Invisible Benefits: Military Procurement as Innovation Policy", Springer..https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-1-4419-5849-5_8This finding belongs to third-party academic literature; it is not a Çeliron study. - B2R&D Institutes
The Fraunhofer turnover multiplier
The turnover multiplier of Fraunhofer spending is 13.18: in 2016, €0.68 billion of private-sector project revenue was associated with an €8.99 billion increase in turnover.
Caveat13.18 is a gross turnover-to-spending ratio; it is NOT a net social return or a return on investment.
Comin, D., Licht, G., Pellens, M., Schubert, T. (2019). Do Companies Benefit from Public Research Organizations? The Impact of the Fraunhofer Society in Germany. ZEW Discussion Paper No. 19-006 / Lund University CIRCLE WP 2018/7.https://www.fraunhofer.de/content/dam/zv/de/leistungsangebot/wirkung-von-forschung/the-impact-of-fraunhofer.pdfThis finding belongs to third-party academic literature; it is not a Çeliron study. - B3R&D Institutes
Research centres and regional patent output
The establishment of a Fraunhofer centre increases patent output in its region by at least 13%.
Llanos-Paredes, P. (2023). The effect of applied research institutes on invention: Evidence from the Fraunhofer centres in Europe. Research Evaluation, 32(3), 566–578.doi:10.1093/reseval/rvad028This finding belongs to third-party academic literature; it is not a Çeliron study. - B4R&D Institutes
International transfer of the model: SENAI Brazil
The network of Brazilian SENAI innovation institutes, established on the Fraunhofer model, produces a contribution equivalent to roughly 0.66% of Brazil's GDP.
CaveatThe effect comes almost entirely from actual research projects, not from the provision of scientific services such as metrology.
(2025). Measuring the causal economic effects of scientific research — Evidence from the staggered foundation of the SENAI innovation institutes in Brazil. Socio-Economic Planning Sciences.https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0038012125001363This finding belongs to third-party academic literature; it is not a Çeliron study. - B5Research Infrastructure
Spillovers through public procurement: CERN LHC
Becoming a CERN supplier has a positive and statistically significant effect on firms' R&D effort, innovation capacity, productivity and profitability; the effect stems predominantly from high-technology procurement.
Castelnovo, P., Florio, M., Forte, S., Rossi, L., Sirtori, E. (2018). The economic impact of technological procurement for large-scale research infrastructures: Evidence from the Large Hadron Collider at CERN. Research Policy, 47(9), 1853–1867.https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S004873331830163XThis finding belongs to third-party academic literature; it is not a Çeliron study. - B6Research Infrastructure
Probability of a positive NPV in big-science infrastructure
The social cost-benefit analysis of CERN's High-Luminosity LHC (HL-LHC) upgrade calculated, through Monte Carlo simulation, a 94% probability of a positive net present value for society.
CaveatThe same team calculated a 92% probability and an expected net present value of roughly €2.9 billion for the original LHC.
Del Bo, C., Florio, M., Giffoni, F. et al. (2023). Projecting the socio-economic impact of a big science center: the world's largest particle accelerator at CERN. Applied Economics, 55(49).doi:10.1080/00036846.2022.2140763This finding belongs to third-party academic literature; it is not a Çeliron study. - B7Defence
Defence R&D crowds private R&D in
A 10% increase in publicly funded R&D produces an additional 5–6% increase in private-sector R&D; defence R&D is a complement to private R&D, not a substitute for it. A permanent one-percentage-point rise in the ratio of defence R&D to value added raises total factor productivity growth by 0.08 percentage points.
CaveatThe study also finds international spillovers: an increase in public R&D in one country's industry also raises private R&D in the same industry in other countries.
Moretti, E., Steinwender, C., Van Reenen, J. (2025). The Intellectual Spoils of War? Defense R&D, Productivity, and International Spillovers. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 107(1), 14–27.https://direct.mit.edu/rest/article/107/1/14/114751/This finding belongs to third-party academic literature; it is not a Çeliron study. - B8Econometrics
The long-run productivity effect of public R&D
The long-run effect of increases in U.S. federal R&D appropriations on innovative activity and business-sector productivity has been measured using narrative identification; the implied returns to nondefense public R&D capital fall in the 140–210% range.
CaveatThis finding relates to NONDEFENSE public R&D and cannot be generalised to defence R&D.
Fieldhouse, A. J., Mertens, K. (2023). The Returns to Government R&D: Evidence from U.S. Appropriations Shocks. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Working Paper 2305 (May 2023, rev. November 2024).https://www.dallasfed.org/research/papers/2023/wp2305This finding belongs to third-party academic literature; it is not a Çeliron study. - B9Defence
Wartime R&D and durable technology clusters
R&D investment made through the OSRD during the Second World War triggered technology clusters across the United States; the increase in high-technology entrepreneurship and employment persisted at least into the 1970s.
Gross, D. P., Sampat, B. N. (2023). America, Jump-Started: World War II R&D and the Takeoff of the US Innovation System. American Economic Review, 113(12), 3323–3356.doi:10.1257/aer.20221365This finding belongs to third-party academic literature; it is not a Çeliron study. - B10Space
Macroeconomic spillovers from space activity
The growth spillovers from space activity peaked between the late 1960s and the early 1980s; the economic impact of contemporary space activity is markedly lower.
CaveatThe size of the spillover depends on where the programme sits relative to the existing knowledge frontier; programmes at the frontier generate larger spillovers.
Paolillo, A., Corrado, L., Silgado-Gómez, E. (2023). The macroeconomic spillovers from space activity. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS), 120(43).doi:10.1073/pnas.2221342120This finding belongs to third-party academic literature; it is not a Çeliron study. - B11Econometrics
State-catalysed venture capital: Yozma
Israel's 1993 Yozma programme catalysed the country's venture capital sector with USD 100 million of public investment. Within ten years the funds' exit rate (IPO or acquisition) reached 56% and total assets under management reached USD 3.2 billion.
CaveatOnly the exit rate and assets under management are verified; no aggregate return multiple attributed to the programme could be verified.
Avnimelech, G. (2009). VC Policy: Yozma Program 15-Years Perspective. DRUID Summer Conference 2009.https://www.researchgate.net/publication/228921726This finding belongs to third-party academic literature; it is not a Çeliron study. - B12R&D Institutes
The regional impact of a research institute
The founding of the Italian Institute of Technology had a statistically significant positive effect on innovation, highly qualified human capital and regional growth in its region; intra-regional knowledge spillovers are demonstrated.
Robbiano, S. (2022). The innovative impact of public research institutes: Evidence from Italy. Research Policy, 51(10).doi:10.1016/j.respol.2022.104567This finding belongs to third-party academic literature; it is not a Çeliron study. - B13Aviation Policy
Strategic industrial policy and aviation
The Airbus case showed that state-supported market entry in aviation can be assessed with game-theoretic models; the literature shows that the results are strongly sensitive to assumptions.
CaveatNeven and Seabright find that Airbus's market entry reduced prices by only 3.5% and that the European welfare gain is contested. This case cannot be presented as a success story.
Baldwin, R., Krugman, P. · Neven, D., Seabright, P. (1995). Industrial Policy and International Competition in Wide-Bodied Jet Aircraft · European industrial policy: the Airbus case. NBER / University of Chicago Press, ch. 3 (1988) · Economic Policy, 10(21), 313–358 (1995).https://www.nber.org/system/files/chapters/c5847/c5847.pdfThis finding belongs to third-party academic literature; it is not a Çeliron study. - B14Space
Measuring technology transfer at firm level
A pilot study of companies commercialising NASA life-sciences technologies found a clear positive return using a conservative method — counting only the value that NASA technology added to firm output and the additional private R&D it triggered.
CaveatThe finding is given qualitatively: no verifiable return multiple exists in the study.
Hertzfeld, H. R. (2002). Measuring the Economic Returns from Successful NASA Life Sciences Technology Transfers. The Journal of Technology Transfer, 27(4), 311–320.doi:10.1023/A:1020207506064This finding belongs to third-party academic literature; it is not a Çeliron study. - B15Defence
Scale in defence exports (context data)
Israel's defence exports reached a record USD 14.8 billion in 2024 (the fourth record year in a row).
CaveatThis is context data based on an institutional announcement, not a peer-reviewed study. No long-run growth multiple could be verified.
Israeli Ministry of Defense / SIBAT (2025). Scale in defence exports (context data). June 2025 announcement.https://www.timesofisrael.com/israeli-arms-sales-break-record-for-4th-year-in-row-reaching-14-8-billion-in-2024/This finding belongs to third-party academic literature; it is not a Çeliron study. - Ş2Defence
Measuring industrial participation: the F-35 and Dutch industry
Published assessments of Dutch industry's participation in the F-35 programme estimate an expected contract value of USD 9.2 billion from the development and production phases, spin-off value of USD 1.1 billion and spillover value of USD 120 million; the programme is associated with more than 23,000 man-years.
CaveatOnly published figures are given; these are expected (ex-ante) values, not realised outcomes.
Vos, B. (2007). Measuring industrial participation: the F-35 and Dutch industry. Defence and Peace Economics, 17(2) (2006) · Defence and Peace Economics, 18(6) (2007).doi:10.1080/10242690701243532This finding belongs to third-party academic literature; it is not a Çeliron study. - Ş5Aviation Policy
Economy-wide output of an aerospace technology programme
The published impact reporting for the United Kingdom's Aerospace Technology Institute (ATI) programme associates every £1 of programme spending with £14 of economy-wide output; the government commitment to the programme is £1.95 billion, matched by industry.
CaveatThis is an economy-wide output multiplier, not a net social return. The source is institutional impact reporting, not a peer-reviewed journal article.
Aerospace Technology Institute (ATI) (2023). Economy-wide output of an aerospace technology programme. Impact Reporting · BEIS / SQW independent impact evaluation.https://www.ati.org.uk/impact-reporting/This finding belongs to third-party academic literature; it is not a Çeliron study.